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Who gets your vote in 2012?

 Barack Obama (BO)
 Mike Huckabee (MH)
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Jan 3, 2008

Iowa's Republican Prediction

Based on a linear regression of the latest polls, this is what we get:

  • Mike Huckabee   29
  • Mitt Romney     25
  • John McCain     15
  • Fred Thompson   10
  • Ron Paul        10
  • Rudy Giuliani   8
Poll MH MR JM FT RP RG
Zogby, 12/29-1/1 28 26 12 12 9 7
Zogby, 12/28-31 29 25 12 10 7 8
Zogby, 12/27-30 29 27 13 8 7 7
Zogby, 12/26-29 29 28 11 8 8 8
Strategic Vision, 12/28-30 28 30 16 13 4 4
Strategic Vision, 12/26-27 29 27 14 15 4 4
Des Moines Register, 12/27-30 32 26 13 9 9 5
CNN, 12/26-30 28 31 10 13 8 8
MSNBC, 12/26-28 23 27 13 14 5 5
ARG, 12/26-28 23 32 11 7 6 6
Research 2000, 12/26-27 34 27 8 11 8 8

Iowa's Democratic Prediction

Based on a linear regression of the latest polls, this is what we get:

  • Barack Obama    31
  • Hillary Clinton 29
  • John Edwards    25
  • Bill Richardson 5
  • Joe Biden       4
Poll BO HC JE BR JB
Zogby, 12/29-1/1 28 28 26 7 4
Zogby, 12/28-31 26 30 25 5 5
Zogby, 12/27-30 26 30 26 5 5
Zogby, 12/26-29 27 31 24 5 5
Strategic Vision, 12/28-30 32 27 29 2 5
Strategic Vision, 12/26-27 30 29 28 2 5
Des Moines Register, 12/27-30 32 25 24 6 4
CNN, 12/26-30 31 33 22 7 4
MSNBC, 12/26-28 22 23 24 12 8
ARG, 12/26-28 24 31 24 5 5
Research 2000, 12/26-27 29 28 29 7 3

According to Pollster.com, the Des Moines Register and the ABC News polls are the most reliable of pollsters. And it is in the Des Moines Register that Obama held a 7% lead over Clinton and Huckabee held a 6% lead over Romney.

As for the latest ABC News poll, Obama held a 4% lead over Clinton with Edwards far behind but it was taken over the middle of December. And Huckabee held an 8% lead over Romney.

So what our regression shows and the results of the most reliable of pollsters, Huckabee and Obama will win their respective caucuses. So despite the perception that the races are close, we feel that it is not. Huckabee will win the Republic+an race and Obama will win the Democratic race in pretty convincing fashion by margins over 5%.

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