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Jan 8, 2008
New Hampshire Primary Prediction
Using the same method we used to predict the results of the Iowa caucuses, we have made predictions of the results of the New Hampsire primaries. We used data from all New Hampshire state polls taken since the beginning of the year and performed linear regressions on the data for each candidate, with time as the independent variable (x) and percentage support as the dependent variable (y). Then we computed the value of the least-squares fit line at x=8, corresponding to January 8, the date of the primaries. Here are our results:
Republicans
Candidate |
Predicted percentage votes |
John McCain |
34.9% |
Mitt Romney |
30.2% |
Mike Huckabee |
11.6% |
Rudy Giuliani |
8.4% |
Ron Paul |
7.3% |
Fred Thompson |
2.8% |
Democrats
Candidate |
Predicted percentage votes |
Barack Obama |
45.1% |
Hillary Clinton |
25.8% |
John Edwards |
20.4% |
Bill Richardson |
5.2% |
Dennis Kucinich |
2.0% |
We also made the following predictions using data from after January 3, the date of the Iowa caucuses. These predictions are probably more accurate because they reflect voters' sentiments following the caucuses. Note that our revised prediction shows Romney beating McCain. This is most likely due to the fact that McCain did poorly in the Iowa caucuses, so New Hampshire voters may be less likely to vote for him. Also, although Obama still shows a commanding lead over Clinton, it is somewhat smaller than in our original prediction. This may be due to the fact that the linear regression we computed using data from before the Iowa caucus has skewed the regression upwards, since the caucus results have greatly increased his popularity.
Republicans
Candidate |
Predicted percentage votes |
Mitt Romney |
30.5% |
John McCain |
29.2% |
Mike Huckabee |
12.9% |
Rudy Giuliani |
9.0% |
Ron Paul |
6.0% |
Fred Thompson |
3.9% |
Democrats
Candidate |
Predicted percentage votes |
Barack Obama |
42.7% |
Hillary Clinton |
24.1% |
John Edwards |
17.8% |
Bill Richardson |
8.4% |
Dennis Kucinich |
2.6% |
Below is the raw data we used to make our predictions:
Republicans
| |
McCain |
Romney |
Huckabee |
Giuliani |
Paul |
Thompson |
ARG, 1/5-6 |
35% |
27% |
12% |
10% |
7% |
2% |
ARG, 1/4-5 |
39% |
25% |
14% |
7% |
6% |
1% |
ARG, 1/1-3 |
35% |
25% |
12% |
8% |
9% |
1% |
CNN, 1/5-6 |
31% |
26% |
13% |
10% |
10% |
1% |
CNN, 1/4-5 |
33% |
27% |
11% |
14% |
9% |
1% |
Marist, 1/5-6 |
35% |
31% |
13% |
5% |
8% |
4% |
Suffolk University, 1/5-6 |
27% |
30% |
9% |
10% |
8% |
2% |
Suffolk University, 1/4-5 |
27% |
30% |
7% |
10% |
9% |
2% |
Suffolk University, 1/3-4 |
26% |
30% |
11% |
11% |
8% |
2% |
Suffolk University, 1/2-3 |
25% |
29% |
13% |
9% |
8% |
2% |
Suffolk University, 1/1-2 |
25% |
29% |
13% |
9% |
8% |
2% |
Suffolk University, 12/31-1/1 |
25% |
29% |
13% |
9% |
8% |
2% |
FOX |
34% |
27% |
11% |
9% |
5% |
2% |
Franklin Pierce University, 1/4-6 |
38% |
29% |
9% |
8% |
7% |
2% |
Zogby, 1/4-6 |
34% |
29% |
10% |
9% |
6% |
3% |
Zogby, 1/2-5 |
31% |
32% |
12% |
7% |
6% |
3% |
Zogby, 1/1-4 |
32% |
30% |
12% |
9% |
7% |
3% |
Zogby, 12/31-1/3 |
34% |
30% |
10% |
9% |
7% |
2% |
Strategic Vision, 1/4-6 |
35% |
27% |
13% |
8% |
7% |
5% |
USA Today, 1/4-6 |
34% |
30% |
13% |
8% |
8% |
3% |
Research 2000, 1/4-5 |
35% |
29% |
13% |
8% |
7% |
3% |
MSNBC, 1/2-4 |
32% |
24% |
12% |
9% |
8% |
3% |
Democrats
| |
Obama |
Clinton |
Edwards |
Richardson |
Kucinich |
ARG, 1/5-6 |
39% |
28% |
22% |
4% |
2% |
ARG, 1/4-5 |
38% |
26% |
20% |
3% |
1% |
ARG, 1/1-3 |
35% |
31% |
15% |
5% |
2% |
CBS, 1/5-6 |
35% |
28% |
19% |
5% |
4% |
CNN, 1/5-6 |
39% |
30% |
16% |
7% |
1% |
CNN, 1/4-5 |
33% |
33% |
20% |
4% |
2% |
Marist, 1/5-6 |
36% |
28% |
22% |
7% |
3% |
Suffolk University, 1/5-6 |
35% |
34% |
15% |
3% |
0% |
Suffolk University, 1/4-5 |
33% |
35% |
14% |
5% |
1% |
Suffolk University, 1/3-4 |
29% |
36% |
13% |
4% |
1% |
Suffolk University, 1/2-3 |
25% |
37% |
15% |
4% |
1% |
Suffolk University, 1/1-2 |
23% |
39% |
17% |
5% |
1% |
Suffolk University, 12/31-1/1 |
20% |
37% |
16% |
5% |
1% |
FOX |
32% |
28% |
18% |
6% |
2% |
Franklin Pierce University, 1/4-6 |
34% |
31% |
20% |
6% |
1% |
Zogby, 1/4-6 |
39% |
29% |
19% |
6% |
2% |
Zogby, 1/2-5 |
30% |
31% |
20% |
7% |
3% |
Zogby, 1/1-4 |
28% |
32% |
20% |
7% |
3% |
Zogby, 12/31-1/3 |
26% |
32% |
20% |
7% |
3% |
Strategic Vision, 1/4-6 |
38% |
29% |
19% |
7% |
1% |
USA Today, 1/4-6 |
41% |
28% |
19% |
6% |
3% |
Research 2000, 1/4-5 |
34% |
33% |
23% |
4% |
3% |
MSNBC, 1/2-4 |
33% |
31% |
17% |
7% |
1% |
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 David Terr
PhD Math, Berkeley
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